Within this talk Derek Jones will provide insights into his analysis of 10+ years of commercial development using Agile (10,100 unique task estimates made by 22 developers, under 20 project codes). paper+link to data: http://arxiv.org/abs/1901.01621
Factors found to influence task implementation effort estimation accuracy included the person making the estimate, the project involved, and the propensity to use round numbers.
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Agile Effort Estimation
Derek used to write compilers that translated what people wrote, and then moved on to analysing code to try to work out what they intended to write. These days he is analysing all the publicly available software engineering data.