Within this talk Derek Jones will provide insights into his analysis of 10+ years of commercial development using Agile (10,100 unique task estimates made by 22 developers, under 20 project codes). paper+link to data: http://arxiv.org/abs/1901.01621
Factors found to influence task implementation effort estimation accuracy included the person making the estimate, the project involved, and the propensity to use round numbers.
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Derek spent 15 years writing compilers to process the code that developers wrote and then another 15 years working in source code analysis trying to figure out what they meant to write. He has written a detailed analysis of C from an economic and cultural perspective and for the last few years has been working on a book covering Empirical Software Engineering.