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An analysis of over ten years of commercial development using Agile (10,100 unique task estimates made by 22 developers, under 20 project codes). Factors found to influence task implementation effort estimation accuracy included the person making the estimate, the project involved, and the propensity to use round numbers.
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Analysis of an Agile effort estimation dataset
Derek Jones
Derek used to write compilers that translated what people wrote, and then moved on to analysing code to try to work out what they intended to write. These days he is analysing all the publicly available software engineering data.